News and Events
Stay in touch
Climate Impact Induced Crisis in Europe: An Exploration of Scenarios by Dr. Alexander Bisaro, Martin Rokitzki, Alannah Hofemeier How could climate change induce a crisis in Europe during the next decade? Our new Report explores 6 Scenarios of low probability, but high...
Will future crises be induced by financial or climate-related events and what is their respective likelihood? For our first module, we worked on scenarios analysing potential causes of future crises as the basis of our project. The aim was to better understand potential sources of disturbance that might translate into a fully-fledged economic crisis. We commissioned two reports pre-COVID 19: one on potential financial crises and the other on climate impact induced crises. Both are crucial in understanding how the current crisis develops and where future crises might emerge. Even after the breakout of the COVID 19 crisis, these two scenarios remain central for our understanding of systemic vulnerabilities.
The first scenario analysis,“The COVID-19 financial crisis”, highlights the emergence of the shadow-banking system and the high levels of corporate debt. It further analyses the shift from bank-based to market-based finance in Europe and shows how the global economic lockdown nearly brought down the global financial system in March 2020.
In the second scenario analysis on “Impacts of climate induced crises“, we look into climate impacts that can trigger social, political, economic or financial crises in Europe. The report identifies six scenarios that are initially rather unlikely but become more probable each year such as: Major river flooding in central Europe or coastal defence failure during a major storm surge in western Europe, causing hundreds of billions in damages. Or prolonged drought in southern Europe leads to crop loss, decreased tourist arrivals, and conflict between water users. Social unrest exacerbates the economic impacts leading to economic crises.
Apart from the two reports on potential causes of future crises, we are developing an outlook for the next few years. The aim is to analyse what lies ahead of us as our societies and economies recover from the COVID 19 crisis. We are working on this together with the independent European climate change think tank E3G. We believe that COVID 19, climate and economic crises will affect different states and regions in Europe in different ways which provides a massive challenge for implementing a social-ecological transformation.
DOWNLOAD FINANCIAL MARKET SCENARIO
DOWNLOAD CLIMATE SCENARIO